Explaining Depolarization Across Space and Time

There is widespread research on the origins and effects of affective polarization (McCoy and Somer 2019; Orhan 2022; Svolik 2019; Torcal and Harteveld 2025). However, we know much less about the dynamics and drivers of “depolarization.” The majority of studies on depolarization have primarily relied on experimental evidence, primarily in the United States (Voelkel et al. 2023; Holliday et al. 2025) but also increasingly in Europe (Ciobanu 2025). We, however, lack a systematic understanding of depolarization across space and time. This paper bridges this gap by building on a novel conceptualization of depolarization as episodes (McCoy et al. 2022). Using data from V-Dem on mass affective polarization, the paper contributes to the literature in two ways. First, it identifies a list of 190 depolarization episodes that took place between 1900 and 2023, with 86 of such episodes taking place after 1990. These depolarization episodes show a reduction in mass affective polarization of 10% and 50%. Second, the paper uses time-variant survival analysis to examine the onset of depolarization episodes. The results show that depolarization is most likely in contexts with lower elite polarization and in less democratic contexts. While affective polarization facilitates autocratization onset, the continuity of autocratization seems to suppress polarization over time. The results withstand a number of model specifications and robustness tests in addition to alternative operationalization using CSES survey data.