Elite Defection Under Polarization

Why do elites not defect from autocratic regimes during crises? Elite defection is less frequent than commonly assumed; even during fiscal downturns or periods of political instability, elites often choose not to actively defy the dictator. Emerging scholarship shows that not all elite groups defect during crises, and regimes tend to be more durable than expected. We argue that political polarization makes defection socially costly: elites avoid joining the opposition out of fear of intimidation and the loss of social connections. Using a country-year dataset of 25 electoral autocracies from 1993 to 2023, we show that political polarization decreases the likelihood of elite defection. Drawing on extensive elite interviews conducted in Turkey with politicians, we then probe the causal mechanisms underlying this relationship. The findings have significant implications for understanding elite defection under autocracies.