To Resist or to Be Resilient: Navigating Through the Main Concepts of the “Opposition Turn” in Autocratization Studies Via the Case Studies of Bulgaria and North Macedonia

The concepts of democratic resilience and resistance against autocratization (R&R) have been central to the ‘opposition turn’ in autocratization studies, stirring contributions on the prerequisites for preventing autocratization and the actors and strategies that could stop it. However, conceptions of R&R often extend beyond autocratization, are used synonymously, and entail an ambiguous relation to democratization, undermining the rigour of analyses and the credibility of empirical findings, whose relevance transcends academia. This article forwards three suggestions to strengthen qualitative analyses mobilizing R&R. Firstly, the article argues that R&R should be modelled as relational concepts to episodes of autocratization. Secondly, the ‘thin’ boundary between R&R should be observed through the study of constellations of resisters and autocratizers and the strategies they employ (institutional and extra-institutional). Thirdly, the paper argues against forward-looking conceptions of democratic resilience as democratic continuity and analyses of resistance transcending the removal of incumbent autocratizers and supporting structures. To demonstrate how refined conceptions of R&R could be employed throughout analyses, the paper selects Bulgaria and North Macedonia as illustrative case studies. After the removal of Nikola Gruevski (2006-2016), North Macedonia concluded a campaign of resistance against autocratization that was followed by a democratic transition. On the other hand, during the last two decades, Bulgaria has been fending off autocratizing pressures, avoiding democratic breakdown whilst continuously exhibiting instability. Besides enabling a discussion on the boundaries within and between concepts of opposition to autocratization and democratization, the case study selection entails an empirical contribution demonstrating how the bilateral dispute between Bulgaria and North Macedonia has been continuously mobilized by actors in both countries amid transformations toward democracy and autocracy.