Polarisation and the Strongman Appeal: When Citizens Choose Security Over Democracy

According to several studies, liberal democracies are facing the threat of undemocratic reforms carried out by elected officials (e.g. Wunsch and Blachard, 2023). Often in these accounts of democratic backsliding, citizens are seen as passively indifferent towards elite-driven reforms. This has led some to claim that erosion of democracy happens only “from the top” (Bartels, 2020). However, as previous literature has shown (Bourdieu, 1979, Zaller, 1994), the relationship between citizens’ attitudes and political elites is much more complex, with elites playing a central role in shaping and mobilizing citizens’ attitudes. This is especially true for electoral autocracies (Matovski, 2021). Can leaders frame undemocratic reforms in ways that actually make them popular? In this study, we tackle the question of elite-citizens relationship when democracies erode from inside. Specifically, we study how political leaders engage with citizens to promote support for antidemocratic measures, by presenting themselves as the solution to moments of crisis: the ‘strongman appeal’. Additionally, we investigate citizens’ vulnerabilities to these messages and how this openness to such discourses depends on their levels of social/affective distance. Through a survey experiment in Spain and the UK, we find that a significant section of the electorate can be classified as ‘autocrats’ and are open to the strongman appeal.