Starving the beast? Near-future prospects of Russian arms exports and security cooperation

The 2022 war in Ukraine has significantly degraded Russian military capabilities, although this is uneven. Whereas the land forces have lost up to half of their frontline armored vehicles – especially main battle tanks, crucial to maneuver warfare – as well as significant numbers of irreplaceable professional troops, especially in elite units such as the VDV or the naval infantry, the fleet and Strategic Aerospace forces remain largely intact. With the Kremlin demanding a vast expansion of military spending, and with shell foundries and tank workshops working at triple shifts, the war also marks a transformational event for the Russian arms industry, which together with energy represents the pinnacle of Russian exports and the most significant prestige industry, at least from Moscow’s perspective. Aside from vast profits for Putin’s inner circle, as well as funding domestic military modernization, Russian arms exports have been a significant tool of influence, especially in enabling anti-systemic actors, including China, Iran, Syria, and others, to acquire conventional military hardware to deter potential Western intervention. Equally important has been Russia’s role as a security provider through the provision of skilled military and/or security personnel. Although this is most prominent in Central Asia through the formal governance structures of the CSTO, in recent years the Wagner Group has become a sought-after commodity in the Global South, especially for autocratic governments seeking security provision without the democracy-related strings attached of Western assistance. The war has dramatically upended the previous state of affairs. Russian arms exports decreased by roughly 20% in 2022, with important future contracts, such as fighter jets for India, now in doubt. Furthermore, Wagner operations in sub-Saharan Africa have been stripped down to the barest minimum, significantly restricting their capabilities. This study examines in detail this decline, near-future prospects, and what role Russia might play in enabling autocrats worldwide in its role as a one-stop bazaar for affordable military and security capabilities at near-parity with the West.