The Electoral Motivations Behind Referendums of Independence: the Cases of Scotland and Catalonia

When are regional nationalist parties (RNPs)more likely to ask for a referendum of independence? I argue that demands for a referendum are contingent upon the environment of political competition they face. RNPs tend to call for a referendum when voters who affiliate with the regional national identity support other parties instead. With a referendum, RNPs seek to shake the electoral arena to their favor in three main ways. One, it allows them to frame national identity as the main political issue. Two, it forces political parties to take a stand on the issue of independence, helping RNPs position themselves as the party that best represents the region’s interests. Three, national identity becomes the main factor determining the electorate’s vote in subsequent elections, over other ideological preferences they may have. In short, referendums of independence are nation-building opportunities aimed to mobilize the nationalist voter to their favor. This paper also explores the strategies and conditions that help RNP’s turn a lost referendum into electoral success. I find that failed referendums can turn into electoral gains depending on the RNP’s ability to discredit other parties’ national claims and to the extent that the push for a referendum engaged the support and mobilization from autonomous grass roots organizations. Whether RNPs support secession or not is most often perceived or assumed to be a stable ideological choice or the result of structural economic and institutional conditions. These accounts cannot explain the frequent changes in their position. They also fail to answer why RNPs paradoxically decide to organize a referendum even when support for independence is relatively low. This paper explores the electoral motivations behind these referendums and the nation-building strategies and contexts that can make them electorally successful even if they lose the referendum. It does that by combining process tracing methods to establish the realignment of political competition in both policies with archival data and author interviews with political and civil society representatives in Catalonia and Scotland. I think my proposal fits well in several of your section's proposed panel topics, especially #6 on Secessionist Movements: Explaining Discourse and Strategy and #3 on Party Competition on Multilevel States, as it explores to the ways in which political parties shape and mobilize national identity as a mechanism for electoral entrenchment.