The shift from a ‘safety net’ to an ‘activation’ role of the welfare state has been widely recognised by many scholars in the field of comparative welfare state research. Despite the increasing attention for the effectiveness of the instruments through which activation policies are delivered, their popularity among the public at large received less research attention. What we know from recent studies on this topic is that activation policies are opposed more by those who are more likely to be recipients, namely individuals in less secure socio-economic positions, particularly the unemployed (Fossati, 2018; Roosma & Jeene, 2017). This is hypothesised to be an effect of self-interest motivations, according to which more vulnerable individuals are more likely to reject welfare schemes that impose strict conditions on benefit reception. However, the welfare attitudes literature acknowledges that contextual factors may shape public attitudes towards the welfare state in general, and towards specific policies in particular (Blekesaune & Quadagno, 2003). Cross-national variations in the support for activation policies suggest a possible effect of the institutional framework, such as the specific tradition of the country’s active labour market policies (Fossati, 2018). In the context of financial and job insecurity, policymakers should pay attention to the public popularity of activation measures, which, together with their effectiveness, might offer insights on their long-term sustainability.
In this paper we analyse how public opinion on activation policies, conceived as obligations that the unemployed have to fulfil to maintain their benefit, vary across countries, and whether these opinions are related to the (instability of the) labour market context. Drawing from the idea that self-interest theory applies to the contextual level, we argue that insecurities on the labour market lessen individual support for activation policies, because people will be more concerned about benefit restrictions. In addition, we hypothesise that these conditions will affect specific socio-economic groups’ attitudes differently: when labour insecurity is widespread in the country, labour market insiders and outsiders might show less divergent attitudes towards social obligations.
By means of multilevel modelling, we analyse the effect of the labour market context on activation attitudes, using data from the 2016 European Social Survey, complemented with external sources (OECD statistics). We expect a lowered support for activation in case of high unemployment and high share of temporary jobs, as well as a convergence in opinions held by different socio-economic groups when labour market conditions are more adverse.
