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The Effect of Voter Personality, Incumbency and Campaigns on the Evaluation of Party Leaders over Time

Elites
Government
Campaign
Quantitative
Electoral Behaviour
Jan Berz
Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universität Frankfurt
Jan Berz
Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universität Frankfurt

Abstract

When and why do voters change their evaluation of party leaders? Voters' evaluations of party leaders are an increasingly important determinant of electoral behaviour, but are voters' evaluations of party leaders driven by apolitical factors like the personality of voters and therefore potentially endangering democratic accountability? Do voters evaluate party leaders with government office differently from opposition party leaders and do electoral campaigns influence voters' evaluations of party leaders? I employ a multilevel growth model with panel data from the United Kingdom to answer these questions. I find that the effect of voters' personality is negligible effect while the effect of campaigns, voters' ideology and issues is considerable. Voters also differentiate between party leaders: party leaders who hold a government office are held accountable for economic performance, especially during election campaigns.