EU Conditionality and the Eastern Partnership: The Russian Dimension

Abstract

Even in the absence of concrete, EU membership plans for the countries of the Eastern Partnership (EaP), the logic of conditionality continues to play a major role in determining EU policy towards this region. For example, in an effort to improve political, economic, and cultural integration, the European Union has tied promises of free trade agreements with demands for tangible domestic reforms. The results of this conditionality, however, have been variable as demonstrated by recent events and political decisions in Ukraine and Armenia. Clearly, the absence of membership prospects in the short or medium-term means that the European Union’s relationship with this region is fundamentally different from those of the 2004/2007 expansions. Arguably, though, Russian influence has also been key in altering the dynamics of conditionality for the EaP countries. This panel therefore focuses on Russian mechanisms of political, economic, and cultural influence in the shared neighbourhood in order to understand the successes and failures of EU policy within this region. A central question is whether EU policy makers have understood Russia’s ideational, economic, and political countermeasures that have the potential to undermine conditionality as it is currently enacted. Additionally, is it appropriate to view the EU and Russia solely as competitors in this region, or should conditionality be modified to adjust to the particular circumstances that characterise this space?