The Technocratic Counter-Reaction: Anti-Populism and Support for Expert Governance

While it is often argued that increasing technocratic governance has pushed certain voters toward populist parties, little is known about the counter-reaction: whether populist success increases technocratic attitudes among other segments of the population. Drawing on theories of anti-populism and affective polarization, we hypothesize that dislike of populist voters strengthens technocratic attitudes among some mainstream voters, who view expert governance as protection against populist rhetoric and policies. We test this hypothesis using two complementary studies: First, we exploit Vox's rapid rise from 0-15% vote share in Spain (2018-2019), which generated strong anti-Vox polarization, to analyze panel data on technocratic attitudes. Second, using survey data from Spain, the Netherlands, and Germany (n=1,500 per country), we examine how dislike of populist voters (measured via thermometer ratings) correlates with three dimensions of technocratic attitudes: anti-pluralism, elitism, and preference for evidence-based politics. We examine whether perceived populist threat moderates these relationships and whether effects differ between right-wing and left-wing populist parties. Given right-wing populists' greater electoral success and their more frequent perception as threatening, we expect effects to be concentrated among right-wing variants. This research thus uncovers a novel, defensive mechanism driving technocratic attitudes: anti-populist reactions to right-wing party success.