Beyond Ideological Distance: Issue Salience and Affective Polarization in Europe

Current research on affective polarization (AP) in Europe tends to treat this phenomenon primarily as a product of individual-level characteristics, using measures of AP that often ignore outgroup heterogeneity. This approach, however, fails to consider how the specific characteristics of parties in multiparty systems condition the levels of hostility directed at their supporters. While emerging work acknowledges that not all out-groups are disliked equally, so far most research focuses on affect between ideological blocs or the mutual dislike between far-right and mainstream party supporters, leaving the impact of other specific out-group characteristics unexplored. This paper addresses this gap by investigating the relationship between parties’ issue salience and the levels of negative affect received by their supporters. Our central premise is that the substance of party competition is a key correlate of horizontal AP. Specifically, we hypothesize that supporters of parties that focus more strongly on cultural issues tend to receive higher levels of negative affect from out-party sympathizers, potentially due to the non-negotiable nature of many of such debates. In contrast, a stronger focus on economic issues would not be associated with stronger affective hostility (rather, it is often the opposite). We also hypothesize that this relationship will vary depending on the in-party’s own priorities. Empirically, we test these hypotheses using data from the 2024 European Election Study (EES), covering all 27 EU member states, combined with party-level data from the 2024 Chapel Hill Expert Survey (CHES). Preliminary findings suggest a significant link between party issue salience and negative affect towards out-party supporters, a relationship that remains robust even when accounting for ideological distance and parties’ specific positions on both economic and cultural issues. This research contributes to the literature by highlighting that what parties emphasize in the political arena is as central to understanding horizontal AP as where they stand on the ideological spectrum.