Polarizing Mobilization? The Effects of Mass Mobilization Amid Autocratization on Affective Polarization

There is an established literature on how affective polarization facilitates mass mobilization. Much less is known about whether mass mobilization in the face of autocratization exacerbates affective polarization. Research has shown how citizens in cases as diverse as Hungary, Poland, Turkey and Venezuela have taken to the streets to challenge would-be autocrats. But to what extent has such mobilization contributed to affective polarization, itself one of the main drivers of autocratization? This paper offers the first cross-national attempt to answer this question by examining the effect of mass mobilization amid all autocratization episodes between 1990 and 2019. Given that mass mobilization is endogenous to polarization, the paper uses an instrumental variable regression to address this issue. The findings support the hypothesized effect of mass mobilization on affective polarization. The results are robust to various model specifications and alternative operationalizations. The paper, thus, underscores that mass mobilization could entrench autocratization by increasing polarization.