The Role of Morality in Right-Wing Populism: Evidence from Populist Attitude Network Analysis and a Moral (Re)Framing Experiment

[Work in progress] Background Populist right-wing movements are often characterized by strongly moralized rhetoric. However, empirical research on the moral foundations of populist support on the demand side of populism remains limited, especially in multiparty political contexts. It is not clear yet whether populist voters themselves endorse distinct moral orientations beyond their host ideology. Drawing on Moral Foundations Theory (MFT), this project examines the role of moral foundations in right-wing populist support in the Netherlands, both as individual-level predictors of vote choice and as components of broader attitudinal belief systems. In a second study, we build on our theoretical analysis of Moral Foundations in populist voting and identity by examining their implications for polarization dynamics in political discourse and campaigning. Specifically, we investigate the impact of moral framing on populist versus mainstream voter bases. As polarization and intolerance have become increasingly problematic within the public sphere, and given evidence that populist voters tend to be less tolerant of political opponents than other voter groups, we focus on the extent and ways in which moral frames grounded in distinct moral foundations can both increase and decrease different forms of intolerance towards political opponents among populist and mainstream voters. Method Study 1 uses the Dutch Election Monitor Survey (DEMoS) 2023 and 2025 (Wave 1: ~5,500; ~3,150). Moral foundations are the primary predictor variables and are measured using the MFQ-2. The main outcome variables are pooled 1–100 likelihood measures of voting for populist right and mainstream right parties. Covariates include populist sentiment, distrust, relative deprivation, and nativism. We estimate group differences, OLS models, and graphical-LASSO networks. Preregistered replication on the 2025 data is underway. Study 2 (DEMoS 2025, Waves 2–3) embeds a preregistered vignette experiment on moral (re)framing. Respondents rate six intolerance items toward (supporters of) their most disliked party. Treatment groups receive one of 12 messages preceeding the intolerance items: six pro-tolerance and six pro-intolerance frames, each keyed to one MFQ-2 foundations. We expect stronger effects when frames align with respondents’ prioritized moral foundations and explore whether and how these effects differ between populist and mainstream supporters. Findings Preliminary Study 1 results show right-wing populist and mainstream supporters are morally similar and moral foundations add negligible explanatory power. Instead, populist attitudes (especially people-centrism) and nativism are strongly correlated with support for right-wing populism. Network analyses place morality as a coherent but peripheral layer in populist voting, with loyalty in particular serving as a bridge from morality to the more centrally connected populist and nativist attitudes. These findings indicate that morality primarily shapes the cognitive architecture underlying populist ideas, rather than directly shaping their content. [Data collection for study two was completed by mid-December 2025, and is currently in the analysis stage.]