The Rise of the Far Right Under Poland’s Post-Illiberal Government

In October 2023, eight years of Law and Justice (Prawo i Sprawiedliwość—PiS) illiberal government in Poland came to an end with electoral defeat to a broad liberal-left coalition led by Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition (Koalicja Obywatelska¬—KO). The new coalition government set itself the task of repairing the damage done by PiS to Poland’s democratic institutions. But subsequent progress was severely restricted by the intricacy of the required changes, the coalition’s own internal conflicts, and the veto power of two hostile presidents. Two years into its term, average polling suggests the coalition will struggle to maintain its majority in the next parliamentary elections in 2027. The Polish case clearly reveals the challenges of post-illiberal government, potentially with wider relevance to other contexts. Yet these challenges have not benefited PiS either, with the former ruling party also declining in polls. Instead, Poland’s post-illiberal period has seen the almost unprecedented rise of the far right in major increases in support—as consistently reflected in parliamentary polling—for two separate groupings: Konfederacja and the party of extremist MEP Grzegorz Braun, Confederation of the Polish Crown (Konfederacja Korony Polskiej—KKP). Polling as high as 25 percent between them, the growing popularity of these two radical parties has significantly changed the dynamics of Polish politics, damaging PiS and further radicalising debates on questions like migration, relations with Ukraine, and EU membership. This paper aims to explain this recent rise of the far right in the context of Poland’s post-illiberal government. On the supply side, it will examine the importance of presidential elections in creating opportunities for minor party actors and the dynamics of competition of these parties with both PiS and KO. Drawing on available public opinion and electoral surveys, including an original survey commissioned by the authors, the paper will also examine whether on the demand side these parties are particular beneficiaries of a radical ideological zeitgeist in which recent scepticism toward liberal democracy and its core values is moving further towards authoritarianism. In the context of this panel, the Polish case offers important insights into how the dynamics of party competition in post-illiberal settings can create new openings for radical actors, and how the very process of democratic recovery may paradoxically generate fresh challenges to liberal democracy.