How Do Trust and Voting Patterns Change Under Populism? Evidence from Tunisia (2011-2022)

This article examines the effects of the rise of populism on institutional trust and voting patterns in Tunisia. In less than two decades, this country went through several transformations, moving from political autocracy to a democratising regime via a popular revolution in 2011 and, since 2019, descending into autocratic populism, perfected through the 2021 autogolpe led by Kaid Saied. How have institutional trust and voters’ behaviour changed, in a context undergoing such significant changes and a dramatic ascend of populism? To answer his question, we analyse the Arab Barometer’s survey data from the third to the eighth wave covering the years from 2011 to 2022. Building on the literature on political and institutional trust, populism, and voting, the paper contributes to these academic debates with fresh data from an under-studied and overlooked case, Tunisia, in spite of the fact that it is one of the most glaring examples of successful populism today.