What Follows Autocratization? The Long-Term Consequences, Benefits, and Negative Side Effects of Democratic Resistance Strategies

In recent decades, many countries have experienced processes of autocratization. Consequently, a growing field of scholarship has examined how political regimes can return to their original levels of democracy when a potential autocrat is ousted from power or defeated in an election. However, similar to research on democratic resistance to autocratization -- how to prevent democratic breakdown during democratic erosion processes -- this growing field of study focused on "re-democratization" has not systematically examined what happens when autocratization ends. In other words, does the type of response to autocratization (or attempts at it) affect not only the prevention of democratic breakdown, but also the prospects for democratic recovery? This is a fundamental research question, considering the number of autocratizing regimes in recent decades and the fact that, after an autocratization period, some regimes remain stable while others stagnate or deteriorate again. The paper uses causal inference techniques to conduct a global analysis over the last 25 years, disaggregated at the country-month level. Its case selection is based on all observations in minimally democratic regimes following an autocratization episode. Using difference-in-difference models, we test the impact of various institutional, political, social, and external democratic resistance events during the previous autocratization episode on subsequent levels of democratic quality components, such as the rule of law, accountability, participation, competition, and others, when autocratization ends. We triangulate evidence from various data sources, including V-Dem, DEED, and others. This paper investigates the benefits and limits of various democratic resistance strategies during autocratization and their long-term consequences, especially on the more disaggregated components of democracy. Our main hypothesis is that not only resistance matters to avert democratic breakdown, but also that the type of resistance is equally important in shaping the post-autocratization setting, both the prospects for re-democratization and the risk of sliding back again into another autocratization episode.