Combining Qualitative Comparative Analysis and Process Tracing in the Study of Asymmetric International Crises

How can configurational and within-case methods be combined to study strategic interaction under conditions of asymmetry? Research on international crises increasingly recognises the need to capture complex interactions between domestic, institutional, and international factors, yet methodological approaches often privilege either cross-case comparison or in-depth causal reconstruction. This paper advances a set-theoretic multi-method design that combines fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) with process tracing to study signalling behaviour in asymmetric international crises. The paper builds on a research design that conceptualises signalling as a repertoire of institutional, legal, economic, military, and ambiguous acts deployed by secondary states facing structurally stronger opponents. fsQCA is used to identify configurations of structural conditions—such as regime openness, access to international institutions, patron or alliance dependence, economic interdependence, and military exposure—that are sufficient for the adoption of specific signalling repertoires and for distinct crisis outcomes. Rather than treating these results as deterministic, the analysis treats them as scope-delimiting patterns. Process tracing is then employed to probe the causal mechanisms through which these configurations operate within selected crisis episodes. By reconstructing signalling sequences and testing proximate triggers and mechanisms—such as institutional leverage, patron activation, domestic constraint, economic coercion, and vulnerability deterrence—the paper demonstrates how fsQCA results can be validated, qualified, or refined. The contribution lies in showing how combining fsQCA and process tracing allows researchers to link structural scope conditions with observable signalling dynamics, offering a robust methodological strategy for analysing asymmetric crises beyond major-power contexts.