Policy capacity and policy sequencing for durability: What analytical and operational capacities are needed for steering feedback processes that shorten the time gap between introduction and ratcheting-up of policy ambition?

Policy sequencing has become a popular concept for scholars across different scientific communities – from transition studies to climate/energy policy to regulation and governance to political economy – to describe (and proscribe) desired temporal dynamics of policy mixes: Starting with a limited intervention enables positive feedback from (initially small) target groups to accumulate, eventually changing the underlying politics and allowing for the adopting of more ambitious policies. For tackling urgent and complex societal challenges like climate change mitigation, this rationale is often seen as enabling the adoption of “first-best” climate policy instruments like carbon pricing (e.g. Pahle et al. 2018 Nature Climate Change). Yet, real-world developments rarely follow such idealised patterns, with cases often getting stuck at some point along the sequence from initial intervention to impactful “finite” instrument. In this paper, we argue that the role of policy capacity is underappreciated in the policy sequencing approach: Both analytical and operational capacities need to be highly developed to devise effective multi-year strategies of ratcheting-up policy ambition, e.g. by anticipating both negative and positive feedback from policy addressees. Reviewing historical cases of the introduction of some form of carbon pricing or taxation (Sweden, Switzerland, France, Colombia, Singapore), we identify were the respective sequence got stuck and analyse the role of (lacking) policy capacity in it. To do so, we break down policy sequences further by distinguishing between four phases: initial acceptance, entrenching support, expanding support, achieving policy outcomes that enable ratcheting-up. We also investigate the role “hybridisation” of policies can play in shortening the time between phases of the sequence. Our paper thus contributes to the further development of policy sequencing as a viable concept for tackling big societal challenges by putting the focus on the necessary analytical and organisational capacities.