Populism and the Future of the Regulatory State: Contestation, Adaptation, or Resilience?

The modern regulatory state was once hailed as an essential framework for ensuring market stability, credible commitments, and professional oversight in everything from financial services to environmental protection. Yet in many parts of the world, a wave of populist politics now directly challenges the autonomy and legitimacy of independent regulatory agencies (IRAs)—the very cornerstones of this governance model. Increasingly, populist leaders have cast IRAs as undemocratic strongholds of unelected “elites,” and their attacks—ranging from severe budget cuts to outright legal restructuring—have put regulatory independence under immediate threat. The urgency of this development cannot be overstated: IRAs safeguard core public goods, from economic competitiveness to consumer and environmental protections, and their weakening poses grave risks to both democracy and effective policy implementation. At the same time, some agencies have shown considerable resilience, drawing on international alliances, specialized reputational capital, and support from business actors who value stable regulatory environments. While certain populist rulers push for the outright politicization of IRAs, others adopt subtler strategies of co-optation or de-delegation. By assessing how IRAs adapt to populist pressures—and which institutional safeguards prove critical—the paper highlights broader implications for the future of democratic governance and state capacity. If populist-driven assaults on regulatory bodies gather momentum, vital sectors of the global economy could face amplified uncertainty. The stakes for sustaining impartial, expert-based oversight are therefore nothing short of critical. This study contributes to an urgent research agenda exploring how transnational networks, reputational mechanisms, and social alliances can bolster regulatory governance in the face of escalating populist challenges.