After the ‘Big Bang’: Trust, Distrust and Discourse surrounding European Strategic Autonomy during and after the First Trump Presidency

Although the concept of European Strategic Autonomy (ESA) originated in the domain of security and defence, discourse surrounding it has paradoxically translated most tangibly into action in the field of European Union (EU) external economic relations instead. To explain this, scholars like Ana Juncos, Sophie Vanhoonacker and Niklas Helwig have added to the conversation on why the European Commission had more success in advancing its concept of open strategic autonomy in the EU’s external economic relations than the French President Emmanuel Macron had in advancing his concept of ESA in the domain of security and defence by focusing on a variety of ideational factors. However, the relationship of trust in the durability of the transatlantic relationship to the willingness of other European actors to move in this direction remains understudied. My paper addresses this issue by exploring how shifting levels of trust in the transatlantic relationship have impacted German support for the French version of ESA in the period 2017-2022 to help explain the mixed progress the EU has made in this domain. Drawing on Niklas Luhmann’s understanding of trust as a mechanism for reducing complexity that flows from the uncertainty of the future and therefore as crucial for the maintenance of the status quo, I argue that 1) relatively distrustful German policymakers initially supported calls for more ESA, which led to the adoption of regulations and directives on the EU level that moved EU policy towards more autonomy in the defence sector, but that 2) with the prospect of a Democrat becoming President in the United States more likely in 2020 German policymakers regained their trust in the durability of the transatlantic relationship in the realms of security and defence, which contributed to the EU not passing further regulation that would move it towards more autonomy.