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Trusting again? The nature of populist demand in Poland 2012-2023

Elections
Populism
Quantitative
Voting Behaviour
Paulina Lenik
Jagiellonian University
Paulina Lenik
Jagiellonian University

Abstract

The paper examines voter attitudes towards the Polish government using data from the European Social Survey that connotated with the past four election cycles from 2012 to 2024. The analysis includes lags to track changes in attitudes towards the Law and Justice Party (PiS) when it was in opposition, in government, and in its most recent loss of the governing majority. The average trend shows that political trust is positively linked to voting for PiS. Satisfaction with governance is negative among PiS supporters when the non-populist party is in power, but positive when PiS is governing. The most consistent factor predicting the populist vote for PiS across all elections is religiosity, highlighting the importance of the alliance between PiS and the Catholic Church in Poland.