Defending Democracy: Assessing the EU’s Fund-Freezing Strategy in Poland and Hungary

Since 2015, democratic backsliding has spread across Europe, despite the EU’s enforcement of safeguard mechanisms to contain it. This raises the question: Under what circumstances, and for what reasons, are EU safeguard mechanisms effective against democratic backsliding? Previous studies struggled to answer, as they relied on theories that overlook contextual factors and lack a clear definition of effectiveness. This article addresses these gaps by developing a novel institutionalist approach that integrates both normative and rational factors, and introducing the Multivariate Safeguard Effectiveness Model (MSEM), a fuzzy set model designed to assess effectiveness. This framework enables an analysis of Poland and Hungary’s differing responses to the European Commission’s 2022 decision to freeze their funds: Poland complied, while Hungary resisted. Applying the MSEM to this case study, I examine the conditions that shaped their divergent responses, identifying the key factors that determine the success of EU safeguard mechanisms in mitigating democratic backsliding.