Critical Analysis of Post-Election Dynamics: Challenges in Democratic Restoration Following the Defeat of Illiberal Incumbents in Bulgaria and Poland

Abstract Pre-election alliances among opposition political parties have been promoted by academics and political analysts as a strategy to save democracy and resist autocratisation. While some studies have examined whether these alliances effectively defeat autocrats or unintentionally reinforce autocratisation, there has been limited critical analysis of whether defeating an illiberal incumbent political party is sufficient to restore democracy. This article seeks to fill this gap by arguing for further research into strategies that not only focus on defeating an incumbent illiberal political party or its leader but also address the broader goals of incrementally restoring and ensuring the sustainability of democracy. Using case studies of Bulgaria, where in 2016 the Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria was defeated by pre-election alliances, and Poland, where in 2023 PiS was similarly defeated by Poland’s Civic Coalition, this study will analyse the post-election political landscape to assess the sustainability of democracy after illiberal incumbent political parties were defeated by pre-election opposition alliances. The findings will contribute to the literature by highlighting the importance of institutional reforms, effective intra-coalition relations, and sustained democratic practices beyond electoral victories. This research employs a comparative case study methodology, focusing on Bulgaria and Poland. Data will be collected through a combination of qualitative methods, including semi-structured interviews with key political actors, analysis of political documents, and media reports.