The 2025 German federal election saw significant electoral shifts, with the borderline populist radical left party Die Linke increasing its vote share, while the populist radical right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) nearly doubled its support to approximately 21%, emerging as the second-largest party. These gains occurred despite prior research suggesting that the AfD had already exhausted its reservoir of nativist and authoritarian voters. This raises the question of what motivates voters to switch to radical parties and how they differ from both loyal mainstream party supporters and entrenched radical voters.
A key theoretical proposition is that support for populism and populist radical actors is driven by a perceived lack of societal recognition - a sentiment that, while seemingly apolitical, can unite electorally heterogeneous groups. This shared psychological experience may transcend traditional analytical distinctions between economic and cultural grievances as well as link diverse sociodemographic groups. Existing research on Germany highlights the multiple sources of populist attitudes rooted in feelings of societal neglect, particularly in relation to one’s work, economic situation, or the political representation of one’s values. However, less attention has been paid to how these perceptions translate into vote choice and party preferences. This study argues that societal recognition must be understood dynamically, as shifts in the political and economic context - such as economic downturns, inflation, or a culturally progressive government coalition - can amplify perceptions of neglect. Moreover, populist parties like the AfD actively politicize these grievances, thereby potentially mobilizing previously mainstream voters who share this sense of disenfranchisement.
Drawing on three-wave panel data from the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES) - collected during a period when nationwide AfD support surpassed 20% for the first time - this study employs random effects within-between models to examine the relationship between multifaceted perceptions of lacking societal recognition and both AfD support and intra-election vote switching to the party. The findings indicate that perceived neglect of one’s economic situation and opinions significantly increases the likelihood of shifting electoral support to the AfD, shedding light on the mechanisms through which societal recognition influences populist radical right voting behavior.
