Does the rise of the Populist and Radical Right undermine mainstream support for climate change mitigation? Evidence from roll-call votes in the Ninth European Parliament
During the 2019-2024 term, the European Commission has initiated a considerable number of proposals to mitigate climate change, most notably linked to the European Green Deal which have brought the EU significantly closer to the emission targets of the Paris Agreement. Nevertheless, the proposed legislation has sparked ample
political conflict, an unsurprising outcome given that de-carbonization policies often imply imposing uneven short-run costs, disproportionately affecting specific domestic groups, such as firms and workers in energy-intensive industries and agriculture or working-class households. The associated burden has spurred opposition from stakeholders and a prominent backlash from populist and radical right (PRR) parties, which politicize green policies as elitist impositions on everyday citizens. This raises the question whether mainstream political actors may react to the electoral pressure from the PRR and become less supportive of green policies. While the theoretical argument is compelling, it is not as easy to provide systematic evidence for such an effect. To do so, we make use of the fact that Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) from different countries, with varying trajectories of PRR strength, vote on the same proposals. The study is the first to provide an in-depth analysis of the
patterns of roll-call vote decisions of MEPs on no fewer than 30 key environmental proposals debated during EP9. Initial results speak against the electoral pressure hypothesis. Our findings also challenge the assertion that mainstream parties have assumed pro-mitigation policies across the board.