Crises are often seen as catalysts for policy change, yet the conditions under which they lead to substantive reforms remain underexplored. This study investigates how and when crises drive migration policy change, distinguishing between functional pressures—arising from objective challenges such as migration inflows—and political pressures, shaped by public discourse and strategic framing. While existing research has examined these pressures separately, their interaction and alignment as drivers of policy shifts remain insufficiently understood.
To address this gap, we conduct a longitudinal comparative analysis of migration policy developments in Switzerland and Norway from the 1990s to 2020. Both countries face similar migration pressures but differ institutionally: Switzerland’s direct democracy amplifies public responsiveness, while Norway’s centralized governance emphasizes expert-driven decision-making.
A key innovation of this study is the introduction of a novel measure of crisis perception, leveraging state-of-the-art natural language processing (NLP) techniques to analyze over 60,000 migration-related newspaper articles. This approach quantifies how migration issues are framed as crises in public discourse, capturing fluctuations in urgency, threat, and salience. By aligning these perception indicators with functional pressure metrics and longitudinal data on legislative changes, we identify patterns of policy responsiveness.
Preliminary findings suggest that policy change is more likely when functional and political pressures align, creating a “full crisis mode.” In contrast, divergence between the two often results in symbolic responses or policy inertia. Switzerland tends to exhibit stronger politically driven shifts, while Norway appears more responsive to functional imperatives. However, further analysis is needed to confirm these patterns across different crisis contexts.
This study advances debates on crisis-driven policymaking by demonstrating how functional and political pressures interact to shape migration policy trajectories, offering insights for other high-salience policy fields.
