Is a Populist Social Contract for the EU Possible?

The paper explores the role of the concept of “social contract” in the theory of European integration in the context of rising support for populist parties in the EU. In general, it is assumed that national-populist parties are opponents of European integration and campaign against supranational institutions and arrangements of the type of the EU. Yet, the idea of a social contract for Europe inspired by national-populism is not fanciful. Influential populist leaders – as Viktor Orban, for instance – claim that they have a vision for Europe, which goes beyond the national level. The paper suggests that two elements are essential for a supra-national populist vision for Europe. First, this is the idea of “illiberal democracy”. The essence of this idea consists in unrestrained majoritarianism and the protection of conservative social values (anti-LGBT, anti-immigrant). The second element is political opportunism at the level of international relations: the preference for outsmarting all possible counterparts, instead of forming lasting alliances based on rules and principles. The paper assumes that these two ideas would likely affect the existing social contract in Europe (or the sum of national social contracts). The paper explores how these two ideas could be interpreted through the lenses of standard European Integration theories. The analysis is focused on the three main theories – federalism, intergovernmentalism and neo-functionalism – which offer a comprehensive understanding of the nature of the EU and its future as a political entity. The populist idea of a European social contract would have a difficulty to be squared with federalism, since it reject the prospect of a federal state, and a pan-European democracy. Still, however, the populist vision of Europe is based on a strong sense of shared social and cultural values, which go beyond the national level. Federalism of values rather than federalism of government could become the populist interpretation of the federalist idea of integration. The populist vision of Europe is more compatible with intergovernmentalism. “Europe of nations” has been an idea advocated in the past and it could easily be recycled for populist use. A European social contract could emerge on this approach as a result of overlapping national social contracts. Finally, neofunctionalism could also be employed in defence of a populist vision of Europe: as Philippe Schmitter has argued, there are circumstances in which the integration processes spill-back or stagnate. This leads to profound changes in civil society, in the loyalties of people towards national and supra-national structures. In general, functionalist pressures (like migration or losing jobs due to globalisation) do not exclude the possibility of disintegration. The populist vision for Europe is a vision of renationalisation, and it could be framed in functionalist terms. The paper argues that a populist social contract for Europe is not a contradiction in terms. It is a political project, which is possible. It should not be dismissed out of hand as internally contradictory, but should be addressed substantively on its merits and demerits (which appear to be quite substantial).