Effect of Violence on Citizen Participation: The Case of Ecuador Amidst the Rise of Organized Crime

In recent years, Ecuador has witnessed a notable increase in violence, primarily linked to organized crime. Since 2018, the country has experienced a surge in the assassinations of political figures, including presidential candidates and other elected officials, raising concerns about the consequences of this violence on citizen participation. This proposal aims to analyze, from a Public Administration perspective, how violence influences political, social, and electoral participation among citizens, with a focus on the Ecuadorian context. Various studies suggest that violence can either demobilize or mobilize political participation. Borzyskowski and Kuhn (2020) argue that electoral violence is a strategic tactic employed in developing countries to influence election outcomes, potentially discouraging citizen participation. However, studies such as Wasow (2020) indicate that violence can, in some cases, lead to increased participation by mobilizing groups that see politics as a channel for resistance and expression. This dual effect has also been observed in Latin America, where Berens and Dallendörfer (2019) find that criminality may have ambiguous effects on voting intentions depending on the victims’ socioeconomic conditions. Ecuador presents a unique context for examining this relationship, particularly in the electoral domain, where political violence has significantly escalated in recent years. This analysis seeks to answer the following questions: Does violence demobilize voters, reducing their participation in democratic processes, or, conversely, does it serve as a catalyst for political and social mobilization? How does violence affect other forms of participation, such as indigenous social movements or public opinion? To address these questions, this study proposes a mixed-methods approach. First, it will conduct a quantitative analysis of electoral participation data in presidential and local elections in Ecuador, comparing participation levels before and after the surge in violence. Second, qualitative interviews with key actors, including political and community leaders, will be conducted to gain deeper insights into how violence has influenced their perceptions of citizen participation. This comprehensive approach will provide a better understanding of the dynamics between violence and participation in contexts of insecurity, offering not only theoretical insights but also practical recommendations for policymakers. In a context where violence threatens democratic stability, this study seeks to contribute relevant knowledge to enhance governance and strengthen participatory processes in Ecuador and other democracies affected by violence.