This paper investigates the shifts in the Icelandic electoral politics in the past decade, focusing on whether a dealignment has occurred in the party system. The Great Recession in 2008 marked a shift in Icelandic politics, and since then a continuation of the stable pre-crisis electoral politics have been challenged resulting among other things in that one of the four established parties, the Left-Greens was wiped in in the most recent (snap) election in November 2024. Drawing on the theoretical framework about representational strain established by Rohrschneider and Whitfield (2012), the study evaluates the challenges faced by political elites and voters in navigating an increasingly complex electoral landscape.
In the paper I will use data from the Icelandic National Election Study (ICENES), covering elections in Iceland since 1983. A longitudional analsysis show a marked decline in the electoral support for the four established parties ithat have been the back bone of the Icelandic party system for almost a centruy. Their combined vote share plummeted from approximately 90% prior to the 2008 crisis to just 50% in the 2024 election, and the Left-Greens was entirely eliminated from parliament. The last decade is also marked by a increase in the number of parliamentary parties indication party system fragmentation, heightened electoral volatility and increased partisan sorting among voters on issues aligning with economical left-right cleavage and along a socio-cultural dimension. While initial indicators in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis suggested the possibility of a realignment, the evidence now points towards a clear dealignment, characterised by shifting voter loyalties and an evolving issue landscape. This paper aims to contribute to the broader understanding of how economic and socio-political upheavals reshape party systems and voter-party dynamics, offering insights into the implications of dealignment for the future stability and representational capacity of Icelandic democracy.
