Splitting the Crowd: Exploring the Polarising Effects of Democratic Backsliding Through Quasi-Experimental Evidence

This paper explores the impact of democratic backsliding on affective polarisation. Reversing the previously explored causal relationship, this paper study how anti-democratic measures contribute to polarisation, suggesting a cyclical dynamic between the two. Employing an unexpected events during survey approach, this study capitalizes on the unexpected suspension of the 2016 recall referendum against Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela during the 2016 AmericasBarometer survey fieldwork to create a natural experiment. This innovative approach allows us to robustly estimate the causal effects of democratic backsliding on affective polarisation. The initial findings reveal an asymmetrical impact on polarisation: while electoral manipulation did not broadly heighten perceptions of societal polarization, it significantly intensified out-group animosity among opposition voters. This extension of blame to the actions of the incumbent suggests individuals hold equally accountable the supporters of the incumbent party for the erosion of democracy. Furthermore, incumbent supporters displayed no significant change in their attitudes following the suppression of the opposition. Their apparent indifference toward opposition grievances suggests that reactions to democratic backsliding are heavily influenced by group identification, highlighting a concerning prioritization of political gains over democratic principles. This research makes important contributions to the affective polarisation and democratic backsliding literature providing valuable insights into how affective polarisation can be both a cause and a consequence of democratic backsliding, offering significant implications for understanding and addressing challenges to democratic quality