Comparing the Effects of the 2015 and the 2022 Migration Crisis on Populist Support in Central and Eastern Europe

Between 2014 and 2017, almost 3.5 million people applied for asylum in the European Union, and after a few year’s dip, yearly asylum applications since 2022 once again reached an average of one million (Eurostat 2024). This has been accompanied by a steady climb in populist (and predominantly radical right wing) parties rising in the polls. For example in 2024, FPÖ gained the highest vote share in Austria, AfD won regional elections in Germany and RN improved its vote share markedly in the French Assembly. According to Hatton (2020), anti-refugee sentiment surged dramatically in 2016, Germany by 17 percentage points and in Hungary by 26 percentage points, indicating that there is high opposition to refugees. A rising body of literature has explored how this feeling influences voting behaviour: Steinmayr (2021) for Austria, Gessler et al. (2021) for Hungary, and most recently, Moise et al. (2024) for 5 West and Eastern European countries. The purpose of this article is to examine the 2015 and 2022 influx of refugees and assess how they affect voter attitudes. The article uses the European Social Survey database and the difference in differences methods to investigate Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and Czechia and the effects on voters, making a comparison across crises and countries. The preliminary findings indicate that, while voters' attitudes toward asylum seekers deteriorated, the right-wing electorate did not expand and in some cases right wing voters just switched parties.