the Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Brazilian High Schools

This study analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on high school dropout rates in Brazil. Based on data from the National Institute for Educational Studies and Research Anísio Teixeira (Inep) for the period from 2015 to 2023, three multiple regression models were applied: the first covering the entire period (2015-2023), the second focusing on the pre-pandemic years (2015-2019), and the third addressing the years during and after the health crisis (2020-2023). To assess changes in dropout trends, an interactive variable combining the year and the occurrence of the pandemic was used, along with control variables related to school location (urban or rural), administrative dependence (public or private), and the country's regions (Central-West, Southeast, South, Northeast, and North). The results indicate that the pandemic temporarily increased dropout rates. Moreover, public schools had a considerably higher dropout rate than private schools. On the other hand, evidence indicates that dropout rates remained similar between urban and rural schools during the analyzed period. The analysis confirms that the pandemic caused a temporary disruption in the downward trend of dropout rates, reflected in the linear coefficient. However, the stability of the angular coefficient suggests that the downward trajectory of dropout rates may decrease in the years following the health crisis.