Ethnic (Indigenous) Voting in Peruvian Presidential Elections in the 21st Century

This article analyzes the manifestation of ethnic (indigenous) voting in the last three presidential elections in Peru. Following Wolfinger (1974) and Kelly (2016), the term ‘ethnic voting’ is used to refer to situations in which members of the same ethnic group exhibit an electoral affinity for a particular party or candidate that cannot be explained by other demographic or substantive factors. More technically, although relatively broadly, ethnic voting is defined as “situations in which belonging to an ethnic group is an important independent variable in determining the vote.” This phenomenon has already been observed and studied in other countries in the region with similar historical, geographical, ethnosocial, and linguistic contexts, such as Ecuador and Bolivia. However, unlike these two countries, ethnic voting in Peru has not been studied with the same intensity (with the exception of Kelly’s 2016 work). Using three models of ethnic voting (i.e., the expressive model, the heuristic model, and the indirect model), this research analyzes survey data from the CSES (Comparative Study of Electoral Systems) research program on Peru’s 2011, 2016, and 2021 presidential elections. The findings reveal a significant influence of ethnic identity on the electoral preferences of the indigenous population. The conclusion is that ethnic voting in Peru manifests through a combination of the mentioned models, where ethnicity influences electoral decisions both directly and indirectly, complementing factors of 'politics-as-usual'—such as economic interests and ideological values. This research thus contributes to the understanding of ethnic voting in Latin American contexts, highlighting the importance of ethnicity in the political-electoral landscape of democracies with significant indigenous populations.