In Search of Autocratization Drivers: The Role of Organized Crime and High-Level Corruption in Incumbent-Driven Democratic Backsliding and Democratic Rupture

The gradual transition of democracy to electoral forms of autocracy is today a major concern in different regions of the world. While scholars have made significant advances in the understanding of how these transitions occur, the search for their causes remains incomplete. With respect to the latter, though often viewed as factors affecting the quality of democracy but not its survival, I argue that, under certain conditions, pervasive organized crime and high-level corruption are important, overlooked drivers of incumbent-driven backsliding and democratic rupture. In particular, the penetration of organized crime and high-level corruption in the political system can make autocratization a more “suitable” option for incumbents. Through the analysis of otherwise different Latin American and post-Soviet cases, I note that similar processes are not specific to certain regions or countries and instead appear as universal drivers of autocratization. This analysis is relevant both to underline the diffusion of similar processes in the context of global autocratization and to evaluate the dangers faced by countries that are prone to these dynamics.