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Presidential Candidate Coattail Effect in Open-List Proportional Representation Legislative Elections: Chile in 2021

Elections
Campaign
Electoral Behaviour
Hugo Jofré
University of Rostock
Hugo Jofré
University of Rostock
Patricio Navia
Universidad Diego Portales

Abstract

Prior works have identified a presidential candidate coattail effect in concurrent legislative elections. In democracies where major parties typically field competitive presidential candidates, the lack of negative cases impedes assessing the magnitude of the coattail effect. We leverage the 2021 concurrent presidential and open-list proportional representation legislative elections in Chile, where some large parties fielded unpopular presidential candidates, to assess the presidential candidate coattail effect on legislative candidates. Using data from 939 candidates for the Chamber of Deputies in 12 multiparty coalitions, we test three hypotheses. We find that while incumbency and campaign spending positively influence electoral performance, having a popular presidential candidate on the ticket also helps legislative candidates who spend more in their campaigns to get a higher vote share and win a seat. Running in a list with a popular presidential candidate improves the chances of getting a higher vote share but not the chances of winning a seat.