Reverse Causality and Destructive Spirals? Misperceived Polarization, Negative Meta-Perceptions, and Affective Polarization

Recent studies find citizens who perceive greater ideological polarization and/or have exaggerated perceptions of the extent to which their political opponents view them negatively, are more affectively polarized. In other words, there is evidence that both (mis)perceived polarization and negative meta-perceptions fuel interpartisan hostility. Scholars have, however, suggested that the relationship between these phenomena may be bi-directional or even reciprocal in nature, and the present study aims to explore whether the reverse may be true. Our contribution is two-fold; first we investigate whether affective polarization bolsters biased perceptions of (ideological) polarization and negative meta-perceptions. Second, we move away from common valanced measures of affective bias (e.g. feeling thermometers), and instead consider the extent to which anger, fear, and disgust might contribute to (mis)perceived (ideological) polarization on the one hand, and biased meta-perceptions on the other. We rely on a unique survey-experiment fielded in nine countries to test these assumptions. Our results will provide further insight into the role of discrete negative emotions underpinning affective polarization and provide evidence as to whether we should (re)consider the presumed causal link between partisan hostility, (mis)perceived polarization and negative meta-perceptions.