Sub-National Economic Inequalities and Support for the Populist Radical Right Across Europe

Literature focusing on the ‘geography of discontent’ (McCann 2020) shows that sub-national inequalities, i.e., inequalities between places within countries, are core determinants of electoral change across Europe (Guilluy 2019; MacKinnon et al. 2022). People living in poorer places express their economic grievances by opting for parties or policy options that disrupt the status quo. Populist radical right parties, which combine anti-establishment rhetoric and hostility to immigration, have been the main winners from such processes. For example, the rise of Trump in the US and Brexit in the UK have been attributed to these geographic divides (Broz et al. 2019; Colantone and Stanig 2018a). However, by making poor ‘left-behind’ places the centre of attention, we overlook a fundamental paradox in voting behaviour research. Populist radical right support has risen in many objectively wealthier places where theoretically conditions for this phenomenon are not favourable. Specifically, plotting the percentage change in populist radical right voting between 2010 and 2020 in the European regions with GDP per capita above their countries' average shows significant heterogeneity of electoral outcomes. While there has been stability and relative decline in some wealthier European regions, the majority of richer regions have experienced dramatic increase in populist radical right support. Against this empirical observation, this paper delves deeper into the relationship between sub-national economic inequalities, i.e., inequalities between places within countries, and support for the populist radical right across Europe. The paper contributes by moving the focus away from sub-national differences in structural economic development and placing it instead on shorter to medium-term fluctuations in their living standards. It argues that rich places that have faced economic decline in their local housing market and the distribution of real wages have experienced a rise in populist radical right support. Using data from 11 waves of the European Social Survey (2002-2023), the paper provides support for this hypothesis. These findings have major implications for understanding the rise of the populist radical right across different territorial units.