Incumbency or Succumbency? The Cost of Being in Government as a Determinant of the Crisis of the Left.

Left-wing parties across Europe face a prolonged crisis, particularly concerning electoral performance and their ability to maintain voter support. This crisis is more acute in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), where the left’s decline began earlier and has been more pronounced than in the West. Although the gap between these regions has narrowed, this convergence is driven by a deterioration of left-wing politics in Western Europe rather than a revival of the left in CEE. The challenges facing the left, both mainstream and radical, are further exacerbated by the emergence of challenger parties and external factors, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the economic and energy crises, and the Russian-Ukrainian war. Mainstream left-wing parties appear particularly vulnerable when participating in government, especially during crises. Voter dissatisfaction often stems from ‘unnatural’ coalitions or failures to fulfil traditional promises, particularly when austerity measures or external pressures dominate policy agendas. These dynamics have led to a loss of voter trust and increased support for populist challengers. The study explores notable examples of this decline, such as Poland in the early 2000s, Hungary post-2009, Czechia after 2021 and with few exceptions, across several Western countries in the last decade (i.e. France, Italy, Greece). Despite previously demonstrating remarkable resilience in maintaining government roles (as noted by Emanuele and Trastulli, 2023), the left’s capacity to recover from electoral setbacks has weakened in recent years. This research examines whether the left’s crisis can be linked to its participation in government, the rise of challenger parties, and the impact of external crises. It posits that left-wing parties are disproportionately punished by voters for governing during turbulent periods, particularly when they fail to align policies with traditional ideological commitments. This punishment often results in voter migration to populist and welfare chauvinist competitors. Methodologically, the study employs quantitative analysis, drawing on electoral data, government participation records, political orientation data (GALTAN and economic left-right), issue salience, and party programmes (the Chapel Hill Expert Survey and the Manifesto Project) have been combined into an original dataset encompassing all EU countries, as well as Norway and the UK, covering the early 2000s through the 2023 legislative elections. This timeframe allows for the analysis of the left’s trajectory during key crises, including the 2009 economic recession, the 2014 migration crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the energy crisis and war in Ukraine. Secondary attention is given to the latter two crises, focusing on left-wing parties' responses to the pandemic and their positions on the Russian-Ukrainian war and sanctions. The study contributes to understanding the evolving structure of political competition in Europe and the ongoing crisis of the left. Comparing the political positions and programmes of mainstream and radical left parties with those of populist and welfare chauvinist challengers, provides insights into the broader dynamics reshaping European politics. Ultimately, this research highlights the left’s decline and highlights a need for its renewal in an era where the traditional left as we knew it in the 20th century appears increasingly obsolete.