This paper examines the recursive causal relationship between self-categorization as a loser of globalization and support for the radical right. We build on a prominent strand of research which argues that radical right parties draw overwhelming support from losers of globalization (e.g. Kriesi et al. 2008). Recently, Steiner et al. (2024) have provided evidence for this globalization loser thesis at the subjective level for the German case: Those who self-categorize as losers of globalization are much more likely to vote for the AfD. Yet, it remains unclear how exactly self-categorization as loser of globalization and support for the radical right are causally related to one another.
To address this gap, this contribution studies longitudinal variation in individuals’ self-categorization as losers (and winners) of globalization for the first time. We hypothesize a recursive causal relationship: Seeing oneself as a globalization loser increases support for the radical right, while radical right support reinforces this self-categorization through party cueing.
Empirically, we utilize data from the Panel of the German Longitudinal Study (GLES). This survey contains five repeated measures of self-categorization as a loser of globalization (so far), stretching the period from March 2018 to October 2024. We can thus cover a long period, during whose latter half German citizens experienced economic hardship as a result of rising inflation and AfD support surged. Employing a random-intercept cross-lagged panel model (RI-CLPM), we trace the bidirectional relationship between globalization loser identity and AfD preferences.
Our study promises to not only identify the causal effect of self-categorizing as a loser of globalization on support for the radical right, but to also uncover how the presence of the radical right may itself contribute to individuals seeing themselves as losers of globalization. We thereby contribute to a burgeoning research agenda that studies the role of social identity for new cleavages (e.g. Bornschier et al. 2024).
REFERENCES
Bornschier, S., Haffert, L., Häusermann, S., Steenbergen, M. R., & Zollinger, D. (2024). Cleavage Formation in the Twenty-First Century. Cambridge University Press.
Kriesi, H., Grande, E., Lachat, R., Dolezal, M., Bornschier, S., & Frey, T. (2008). West European Politics in the Age of Globalization. Cambridge University Press.
Steiner, N. D., Mader, M., & Schoen, H. (2024). Subjective Losers of Globalization. European Journal of Political Research, 63(1), 326-347.
