Seeing Oneself as a Loser of Globalization and Supporting the Radical Right: A Recursive relationship?

Building on a prominent strand of research suggesting that radical right voters are often ‘losers of globalization’, this paper examines the recursive causal relationship between self-categorization as a globalization loser and support for the radical right. While it has recently been shown that those who self-categorize as losers of globalization are much more likely to vote for the radical right, the directionality of this relationship remains unclear. We propose that perceiving oneself as a globalization loser increases support for the radical right, and that such support, in turn, reinforces this self-perception through party cueing. To investigate this, we draw on panel data from the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES). Using six repeated measures of self-categorization as a globalization loser collected between March 2018 and October 2023, we find that self-categorization as a loser of globalization increases subsequent support for the AfD and that support for the AfD subsequently increases the tendency to self-categorize as a loser of globalization. This evidence on the dynamic interplay between globalization loser identity and radical right support contributes to a growing body of research exploring the role of social identity in shaping new political cleavages.