This paper investigates the dynamics of affective polarisation in Greece and its implications for electoral behaviour in recent national elections, in 2019 and 2023. It draws on original and representative post-election telephone surveys, employing structural equation modeling to propose and empirically test a novel model of electoral behaviour with both explanatory and predictive power. The paper argues that affective polarisation around a party is driven by and produces different effects than polarisation around leaders and extends to identity group divisions beyond partisanship.
Findings demonstrate that affective polarisation was the strongest predictor of vote choice in the 2019 election. Party affective polarisation, influenced by salient issues such as migration, austerity and environmentalism, shaped voter preferences in ways that benefited the left-wing SYRIZA and PASOK parties. In contrast, leader affective polarisation, rooted in ideological alignment, nationalism and progressive environmental policies, strongly favoured the centre-right New Democracy party that won the 2019 election.
These dynamics were also pivotal in 2023, as New Democracy strategically harnessed polarisation around its leader to secure a surprising -in terms of its margin- victory and re-election. SYRIZA and PASOK, on the other hand, adopted counter-productive pre-election discourses, amplifying polarisation around leaders and failing to capitalise on party-focused dynamics.
Overall, this paper situates affective polarisation as a transient, discourse-driven phenomenon, emphasizing its contextual dependence on issue salience, socially constructed identity group antagonisms and elite framing. The model’s ability to explain and forecast vote choice highlights its potential to contribute to our understanding of electoral behaviour and campaign strategies, beyond the Greek case.
