Between Ambition and Feasibility: Changes in the EU Renewable Energy Policy, 1990–2024

This paper examines the evolution of the European Union’s (EU) renewable energy (RE) policy from 1990 to 2024, focusing on how changing perceptions of feasibility shape policy ambition, what drives implementation measures, and under what conditions targets are met. Using a simplified policy cycle framework and process tracing across four major policy cycles, we analyse the interplay between state goals, capacities, and feedback loops within co-evolving policy, technology, and market systems. While climate mitigation, energy security, and competitiveness have consistently guided EU RE policy, they do not fully explain shifts in specific targets or levels of effort. Instead, ambition has been strongly influenced by perceptions of what levels of renewable deployment are economically and politically feasible — particularly in relation to subsidy affordability. Policy targets tend to accelerate historical growth when subsidies can be expanded or are no longer required due to low costs and high electricity prices; in other contexts, targets generally track past trends. Subsidies can rise rapidly from low initial levels but eventually hit a ceiling — around 0.5% of GDP in the EU— beyond which growth slows or stalls. These patterns of target-setting and subsidy allocation help explain phases of policy-driven technology diffusion, particularly growth pulses and prolonged near-linear expansion. We further show that during formative or re-acceleration phases of diffusion, targets are often over- or underachieved because the techno-economic models informing policies cannot adequately capture the high technological and socio-political uncertainty of these phases. In contrast, during stable growth periods, targets tend to be more accurate. These findings contribute to broader debates on climate target credibility, policy–technology feedbacks, and the evolving role of policy in scaling low-carbon transitions.