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Polarization and Voting for Radical Right-Wing Parties in the Southern Cone and Brazil

Extremism
Latin America
Political Parties
Populism
Comparative Perspective
Nicolás Miranda Olivares
Universidad de Salamanca
Nicolás Miranda Olivares
Universidad de Salamanca
Carolina Plaza Colodro
Universidad de Salamanca

Abstract

In recent years, the countries of the Southern Cone and Brazil have undergone significant political transformations, most notably the rise of radical right-wing movements and parties. Among the most emblematic cases are Jair Bolsonaro’s victory in Brazil’s 2018 presidential election and his subsequent clash with Lula in 2022, as well as Javier Milei’s groundbreaking win in Argentina’s 2023 presidential race. Equally striking is the case of José Antonio Kast, who advanced to the second round of Chile’s 2021 presidential election, sidelining traditional right-wing parties in the process. In Uruguay, the 2019 elections saw Guido Manini Ríos secure an unexpected 11% of the vote, though his support dwindled to 2.45% in 2024. This research adopts an issue-driven approach to examine the trends of opinion polarization linked to the emergence of radical right-wing populist parties (PRRP) in the Southern Cone and Brazil. Using LAPOP data that covers attitudes on a broad spectrum of issues—redistribution, gender equality, same-sex marriage, immigration, and climate change—we employ the GREED-GRID-GROUP framework developed by Kitschelt and Rehm (2015) to uncover nuanced patterns within the broader dynamics of public opinion and their implications for electoral behavior. Our central hypotheses suggest that opinion polarization is concentrated around PRRP electorates and that mass polarization on specific political preferences or issues is strongly correlated with heightened support for radical right-wing populist parties. This study offers a critical perspective on how polarized opinions shape political alignments and the democratic challenges posed by the rise of the PRRP in Latin America’s rapidly evolving political landscape.