Affective Polarization and Electoral Turnout: Testing the Mediating Role of Political Sophistication on the Italian Case.

Affective polarization has recently emerged as a pivotal phenomenon in global politics. While most literature highlights its negative consequences for democratic quality, recent studies have explored its potential positive effects, particularly its capacity to mobilize citizens both electorally (e.g., voter turnout) and beyond voting. However, while evidence generally shows a positive correlation between affective polarization and political participation, little is known about which citizens are mobilized. Instead of assuming uniform effects, it is crucial to examine how affective polarization impacts different groups of citizens. Surprisingly, this aspect remains underexplored. Drawing on research into party and ideological polarization, we identify political sophistication as a key moderating factor influencing the relationship between affective polarization and electoral turnout. This paper addresses the following research questions: Does political sophistication moderate the effect of affective polarization on turnout? If so, which groups are most affected? Using an original survey of Italian public opinion conducted during the 2024 European elections, we employ regression and interaction analyses to investigate these questions. Our findings shed light on the determinants of voter turnout and provide valuable insights into the relationship between affective polarization and the quality of democracy.