First Impression Matters: The Impact of Initial Performance on New Parties in Multilevel Democracies

Winning first parliamentary representation is a critical milestone for any new party. Over the last decade, new parties have emerged across multiparty democracies. While many can win seats and enter parliament, not all succeed on their first attempt; some require multiple tries before their initial breakthrough. Does winning seats on the first attempt matter? Is early electoral failure detrimental to them? Despite extensive research on new parties, a critical gap remains in understanding how their choices regarding initial electoral contests impact their career trajectories. In this article, I argue that flawless electoral records matter for new parties in multilevel democracies. Using a new dataset of 219 new parties that enter parliament at any level (national, subnational, and supranational) in 13 European multilevel democracies (2004-2024), I show that new parties winning seats on their first attempt are more likely to convert initial momentum into electoral success across different levels compared to those with previous failure records. The findings provide novel empirical insights into the importance of new parties’ strategic choice on their electoral debut. By highlighting the consequential impacts of initial electoral performance, this study makes a significant contribution to the literature on the evolution of party systems and new parties and party competition in multilevel democracies.