Bridging or Deepening Divides? The Impact of Direct Democracy on Societal Tensions

Direct democracy is frequently proposed as a remedy for democratic decline in established democracies. Yet, it holds the potential to either deepen or bridge societal divides. On the one hand, direct democratic processes can exacerbate tensions by amplifying political conflicts and polarizing issues. On the other hand, they may foster trust and consensus through norm signaling or shared public engagement. This study investigates the conditions under which direct democracy influences vertical trust (trust in institutions) and social trust (trust in others) across different mechanisms, such as referendums and initiatives, and varying political contexts. Drawing on post-vote survey data, I examine how political polarization and conflict shape trust dynamics, exploring whether direct democratic mechanisms reflect or reshape societal fault lines. The findings aim to shed light on the role of direct democracy in influencing trust and mitigating societal divisions in diverse political climates.