There is by now ample evidence on a new social cleavage in West European politics between the New Left and the Far Right, structured at the level of voters by education and universalistic-particularistic group identities. However, there is disagreement on the scope and relevance of this cleavage: Some scholars argue that it involves only a minority of radical voters and parties. Others contend that it increasingly also structures competition between mainstream parties, and some even argue that is has become a dominant cleavage, similar to the class and religious cleavages in the 20th century.
In this study, we use two original surveys to (a) assess the extent of cleavage formation across West European countries, and (b) to explain cross-national variance. In both surveys, we measure voters’ perception of group-party representation, i.e. we observe how voters link universalistic and particularistic group identities to parties.
In a first empirical step, we use 2024 EES data to observe citizens “mental maps” of group-party representation across EU countries. The survey includes a battery of questions on group identification and perceptions of group representation that allows us to study the scope of cleavage formation. Second, we use original in-depth data from four countries – France, Germany, Switzerland, and Britain – to explain variation across countries. We probe two explanations: On the one hand, cleavage sequencing, whereby old group identities linked to the class cleavage lose ground but continue to structure mental maps of representation – especially among older voters. On the other hand, generalized politicization would imply that the new cleavage structures citizens’ thinking about representation even among voters of moderate parties and those with lower political knowledge and interest. In the latter scenario, the cleavage would also encompass segments of the electorate not directly implicated on antagonist sides of the new antagonism. Whereas the mental maps of voters in some countries may be most adequately characterized by cleavage sequencing, other contexts have likely progressed towards generalized politicization.
