Democratic Resilience from Below: Voter Profiles of New Opposition Parties in Serbia and Croatia

This paper examines the socio-economic and cultural profiles of the average voter supporting new opposition parties in Serbia and Croatia, which have emerged as pivotal actors in advancing democratization processes in both countries. In both cases, these new opposition parties arose following prolonged periods of protests and social movements driven by grassroots mobilization and demands for political change, addressing the widespread public dissatisfaction with the state of democracy. Relying on original survey data from 2021 and 2024, this study recodes occupation into class categories based on Oesch (2006) and examines the cultural and economic attitudes of voters. By linking class positions to attitudinal dimensions, it sheds light on how socio-economic and ideological factors shape support for these new opposition parties. While both countries share a history of Yugoslav socialism, a period of authoritarianism, and political instability, their trajectories diverge in terms of institutional reforms, EU integration, and to a certain degree, socio-economic transformations. Using descriptive analyses and binary logit regressions, this paper finds that voters for new opposition parties in Croatia are more homogeneous, predominantly middle-class based, urban, and culturally liberal. In contrast, voters for new opposition parties in Serbia are more diverse, representing a broader cross-section of society. This difference underscores the role of localized socio-political contexts in shaping voter bases for democratic opposition movements in the two countries, suggesting that in Croatia, voters may have been more consistently mobilized by specific opposition narratives or political issues. The findings contribute to insights about the relationship between voters, opposition movements, and democratic resilience in similar fragile democracies beyond the Western Balkans.