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Mapping the Dynamics of European Elections: A Comparative Analysis of Voter Priorities, Campaign Strategies, and Electoral Outcomes

Comparative Politics
Elections
European Union
Political Competition
Voting
Campaign
Quantitative
Electoral Behaviour
Vasiliki Bouranta
Aristotle University of Thessaloniki
Vasiliki Bouranta
Aristotle University of Thessaloniki
GEORGIA PANAGIOTIDOU
Aristotle University of Thessaloniki

Abstract

This study explores the evolving dynamics of European parliamentary elections, focusing on the interconnections between voter priorities, campaign strategies, and electoral outcomes of 2024 compared to 2019. Leveraging data from Eurobarometer surveys, electoral results, and marketing strategies, the research applies statistical methods, including correlations, factor analysis, hierarchical clustering, and correspondence analysis, to examine the factors influencing voter behavior and political group performance across 27 EU member states. The findings highlight significant regional variations in voter priorities, with health, climate, and economic concerns dominating public discourse. Political marketing strategies, ranging from traditional grassroots campaigning to innovative digital outreach, reveal a strategic alignment between party platforms and voter expectations. Notably, center-right and liberal parties demonstrate resilience through mixed strategies, while far-right and nationalist groups gain traction with focused digital campaigns. Conversely, traditional leftist platforms face challenges in adapting to shifting voter priorities, particularly in regions affected by economic instability and migration. The study uncovers the growing fragmentation and polarization of the European political landscape, evidenced by the rise of smaller and independent groups alongside declining support for centrist and green platforms. By linking electoral gains (and losses) to marketing strategies and issue prioritization, the research highlights the strategic importance of aligning party messaging with voter concerns to achieve electoral success. The study addresses the following key research questions: 1. How are voter priorities, as captured in Eurobarometer surveys, structured across EU countries? 2. What are the primary marketing strategies employed by European political groups, and how do these strategies align with voter priorities across different countries? 3. How have seat allocations for European political groups changed between 2019 and 2024, and what factors explain these changes? 4. How do countries cluster based on their citizens’ issue priorities, and how do these clusters relate to changes in electoral outcomes for political groups? 5. What is the relationship between turnout changes, voter preferences, and ideological shifts across the EU? 6. What are the implications of these findings for understanding the evolving European political landscape and the strategic positioning of political groups?