Ukraine, Gaza, and U.S. Leadership: Ideology and Public Opinion on Global Power Struggles in Austria

This study investigates the ideological and socio-structural factors shaping citizens’ views on current international conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, in light of growing global divides about which country should be the major world power. While recent research highlights a global cleavage between countries supporting the United States and those aligned with Russia or China, little attention has been paid to variations within countries. Addressing this gap, we analyze how existing political cleavages structure public opinion on U.S. global leadership and international conflicts, using original survey data from Austria. Our findings reveal two key cleavages: the Communitarian-Cosmopolitan divide, which separates voters of the far right (communitarian) from those of the Greens (cosmopolitan), and the Traditionalist-Emancipative divide, contrasting voters of the center-right (traditionalist) with those of the far left (emancipative). The Communitarian-Cosmopolitan cleavage distinguishes opposition to sanctions against Russia from support for aid to Ukraine, while the Traditionalist-Emancipative cleavage divides supporters of Israel’s right of self-defense from those advocating for stronger protection of human rights in Gaza. In both cases, attitudes toward U.S. world leadership mediate these relationships. This study contributes to the literature by demonstrating how attitudes toward international conflicts are structured along existing cleavages. Additionally, the findings reveal that opposition to U.S. leadership in world affairs arises from both the far left and the far right but is rooted in distinct ideological frameworks, with different implications for their positions on the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza.