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The Centre-Periphery Divide: Shaping Political Landscapes and Voter Dynamics in Spain, the UK, and Cyprus

Cleavages
Regionalism
Voting
Identity
Quantitative
Comparative Perspective
Voting Behaviour
Vasileios Manavopoulos
University of Cyprus
Vasileios Manavopoulos
University of Cyprus

Abstract

This paper explores the dynamics of the centre-periphery cleavage and its impact on electoral behaviour, focusing on Spain, the United Kingdom, and Cyprus—countries with pronounced centre-periphery antagonism. Building on prior research, we examine how voter-party congruence and identity alignment interact to shape electoral choices. Conventional approaches suggest voters gravitate toward parties that reflect their regional or national identity or align with their policy preferences. Our study extends this framework by hypothesising that voter-party congruence is more influential for parties not competing directly on the centre-periphery divide, whereas identity alignment plays a larger role for regionalist and nationalist parties. Using data from three nationwide Voter Advice Applications (VAAs) conducted in Spain (2019), the UK (2019), and Cyprus (2021), each engaging over 50,000 participants, we analyse key variables such as regional, national, and European identities, policy preferences, and voting behaviour. Employing probit models in a mixed-effects regression approach, we estimate the effects of identity alignment and policy (in)congruence on voting choices. Our findings reveal the interplay of identity alignment and political congruence, demonstrating their varying importance across party types.